In today's employment report, we were looking for October job losses in the 160,000 to 170,000 range. We got 190,000 losses, and an unemployment rate of 10.2%. This looks very disappointing on the surface. But the report also reveals that the Bureau of Labor Statistics made very positive adjustments to the August and September job-loss numbers. The losses in total nonfarm payroll employment for August was revised from 201,000 to 154,000; the change for September was revised from 263,000 losses to 219,000. These are big adjustments. That's about 100,000 more jobs than we that we had, and they're across many different sectors. If you net the past three months together, we're better off today than we thought we were yesterday.   

As a passive investor, my use of ETFs has been confined to holding a large, highly liquid major ETF index while waiting for the wash rules to lapse. For example, if Vanguard Total Stock Market VTSMX was sold for tax-harvesting reasons, shares of Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF VTI could be purchased in portfolios to maintain proper exposure. After the wash rules expire, the mutual fund could be repurchased. Other than this option, passive low-cost index mutual funds are the preferred investment vehicle for client portfolios. Why?   More 

For the last decade, I've had an identity crisis. I've never really been sure what to call myself. I have had business cards that said "financial consultant," "financial advisor," "wealth manager," "private wealth advisor," etc. They all seemed to be much more about marketing then an actual description of what I did professionally.

During much of that time, I have been a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER^TM. Does that mean I should call myself a "financial planner"?   More 

The law-firm bonus indicator: a big decrease from 2008.

Barry Ritholtz on the dismal "science" of the dismal science.

And The American Scholar has a fascinating look at the personal finances of F. Scott Fitzgerald. As the author notes, when comparing income levels from different decades, a CPI-based adjustment doesn't yield an accurate result, as it ignores effective income tax rates. Fitzgerald was in the 1% of wage earners for most of his working life, yet paid an effective tax rate of just 5.5%. While Fitzgerald's $24,000 annual income translates into $500,000 in today's dollars, he could afford a better lifestyle than someone earning that salary today.   

Here's a quick recap of some notable data that has come out recently. None of it jeopardizes my forecast of 3% to 4% GDP growth in the fourth quarter. The Case-Shiller Home price indexes registered another month of improvement, durable goods orders registered a healthy 1% increase, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined considerably less than the initial midmonth estimate.

The Michigan Survey came in at a respectable 70.6 for the final October reading (the midmonth, preliminary estimate was in the mid-60s--yikes!), but still down from 73.5 the prior month. Confidence numbers in the low 70s are consistent with 3% year-over-year growth in consumer expenditures that we haven't seen, at least not yet.   More